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By Leigh Catherine Miles
Editor, Iran Election Bulletin

Dear Reader,

The Guardian Council announced this week the slate of candidates who will be allowed to compete in the June 12 presidential polls. Of the 475 who registered, only the four who have captured the election spotlight were approved – incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, fellow conservative Mohsen Rezai and reformists Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Despite initial signals that the Guardian Council might at last approve the first woman candidate, none of the 42 women who registered was allowed to compete. While still effectively barred from the presidency, women have emerged as key players in the current contest. Candidates are reaching out to women voters with pledges to appoint women to senior administration positions and address women’s rights. Mousavi’s wife has taken an unprecedented role in his campaign, giving policy speeches and attending rallies side-by-side with her husband. And at least one candidate is even accused of trying to buy women’s votes through distribution of food vouchers and other largess.

Youth and ethnic minorities have received similar attention from the candidates. All four have made tours through Iran’s provinces and spoken to youth and student groups, highlighting their proposed policies to address each group’s respective concerns. While candidates have played to women, youth and minorities in the past, the level of outreach has been elevated in this campaign season – an indication that the candidates view this election as highly competitive.

High voter turnout might force a second round vote – though who the current front runner is, and by how much, is still anyone’s guess. Candidates and their associated media outlets are putting out their own polls, but thus far no credible independent polling has been released.

This issue of the Iran Election Bulletin looks at the voting demographics of women, youth and ethnic minorities. While any one of these groups might not be able to shift the outcome of the election, collectively they have the potential to wield significant electoral influence.

I hope you enjoy reading this edition and welcome you to email me with questions or comments.

Sincerely,
Leigh Catherine Miles
Editor

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Published on May 21, 2009