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By Leigh Catherine Miles
Editor, Iran Election Bulletin

Dear Reader,

As reformists began uniting behind former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi this week, with several prominent reformist parties officially endorsing his candidacy, rival Mehdi Karroubi remained steadfast in his plans to contest the June 12 presidential elections.  With Karroubi cast in the role of spoiler, the reformists are leaving the door open for a potential coalition of pragmatic conservatives to capture votes from the center-left and prevent the divided reformists from securing an election victory.

It is still anybody’s guess as to whether the “pragmatics” will settle on a candidate – or who that candidate might ultimately be.  Both Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Mohsen Rezai, two of the three leaders of the pragmatic conservative coalition, have moved to announce their candidacies, only to make sharp reversals.  Ali Akbar Velayati, the third leader of the coalition, previously stated that he had no plans to run.  With President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s candidacy still undeclared, although expected, conservatives have no official candidate with less than two weeks before candidate registration opens.

Amid the political disunity – among reformists and conservatives alike – National Nuclear Day highlighted the one issue that does unite Iranians.  While Iran’s nuclear program has not been a major campaign issue, declared and potential candidates have uniformly reiterated their support for the Islamic republic’s enrichment program.  So while the next president of Iran might make a shift in economic policy or the level of social liberties, Iran’s nuclear position is likely to remain unchanged.

This edition of the Iran Election Bulletin features articles by Geneive Abdo on how the nuclear issue is factoring into domestic politics and by Kaveh-Cyrus Sanandaji on what reformists should learn from past electoral defeats.  Gazelle Javantash adds her reflections on the election from a recent trip across Iran.

I hope you enjoy reading this edition and welcome you to

email me with any questions or comments you may have.

Sincerely,
Leigh Catherine Miles
Editor

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Published on April 24, 2009